🧐 The Reality of Craft’s 2024 Performance So Far

Brewbound Insiders are diving into the Brewers Association’s (BA) midyear update and analysis from BA chief economist and VP of strategy Bart Watson, including his thoughts on how craft is performing versus other segments and categories, and how trends compare to 2023. 

Insiders are also:

• Getting details on a brewery move in Massachusetts;
• Reading about former Allagash sales director Naomi Neville’s next chapter;
• Learning about the latest bev-alc company to file for bankruptcy;
• And checking out what analysts are saying about Boston Beer’s reliance on Twisted Tea.

Insiders also have access to the Brewbound Newsletter Archive, including previous newsletter-exclusive Insider content.

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HPA’s hyper focus on hop quality has also paid off, with this year’s oil content coming in equal or above the 5-year average. It should be a great year of true-to-type flavors and aromas in beer. Contact HAAS and their distribution partners to get your hands on some new crop 2024 Aussie hops today. Learn more

Craft volume is down an estimated -2% through the first six months of 2024, according to Brewers Association (BA) chief economist and VP of strategy Bart Watson in his annual midyear webinar Tuesday. 

Watson evaluated craft’s midyear performance using BA survey results, scans, data from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) and more. He noted that the BA’s pool of survey respondents is not as robust at midyear as its year-end survey, and that there might be a bias, as breweries with more positive years so far are more likely to report their figures. 

A majority of respondents to the BA’s survey said they have increased production volume since the same midpoint of 2023. However, those reporting growth have likely taken volume from other craft breweries, Watson noted. 

Depending on how responses are weighed to account for bias, BA-defined craft breweries are either static or slightly below 2023 performances, suggesting “fairly similar” trends to 2023, Watson said. 

Insiders can read more, including how craft compares to other beer segments, and Watson’s comments on on-premise trends.

Massachusetts-based Exhibit A Brewing has closed its Framingham brewery and taproom, and will move operations more than 90 miles west to Williamsburg, the craft brewery announced this week. 

Exhibit A has operated out of the Framingham location since 2016, taking over the space that formerly housed Jack’s Abby Craft Lagers, with the latter brewery moving out in search of increased capacity.

Insiders can read more, including recent scan data.

Twisted Tea accounts for the majority of Boston Beer’s volume and has become the company’s “only meaningful source of growth,” Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat wrote in a report focusing on the brand’s sustainability. 

Growth of Twisted Tea volume has decelerated to +10% year-over-year (YoY), compared to +35% at this time last year. Against the backdrop of rising competition in the hard tea segment, a cooling off period for Twisted Tea could spell trouble for Boston Beer.

Through a forecast model examining total distribution points and state-level per capita data, Sarwat estimates Twisted Tea can deliver a +9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years – with some caveats.

Insiders can read more about Twisted Tea’s portfolio and distribution, competition in the hard tea segment, and Boston Beer’s shifting shipment volume share.

It’s time to book your room for Brewbound Live! Our two-day event for beer and beverage-alcohol professionals heads to Marina del Rey, California, on December 11 + 12. Register now to stay just steps from the action and save on your stay at the Marina del Rey Marriott Hotel (4100 Admiralty Way, Marina Del Rey, CA).

The Brewbound Live room block always sells out, so we encourage you to register today to secure your place among brewers, retailers, investors, distributors, beer leaders, and industry partners. Once registered, you will receive an email with the link to the discounted room block. Plus, right now you can take advantage of early registration pricing and save $100 per registration. Plan ahead to save and take advantage of both the room block and early registration discounts.

Attendees can look forward to expert presentations from brewery leaders, retailers, beverage-alcohol suppliers, wholesalers, and data providers, business conversations during scheduled networking breaks, the Brewbound Live Pitch Slam, samples of the latest innovations in the industry and the Brewbound Live Official Party, all set against the backdrop of sunny Southern California.

Register for Brewbound Live Winter 2024.