The key takeaways today:
- Are there still opportunities in private credit?
- US investors want AI to translate into real revenue gains
- The Big Number: A $1 trillion tide of investment
- How to find mega growth stocks that will power markets
- Black women start businesses faster than any other demographic
- Briefings Brainteaser: How many Julys in a row has the Nasdaq 100 index rallied?
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The outlook for private credit |
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Are there still opportunities in private credit? The asset class has more doubled in size since 2018, with about a trillion dollars entering private credit strategies. |
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Some have raised concerns that the space may be getting crowded, with too much money chasing too few opportunities. But Stephanie Rader of Goldman Sachs Asset Management points out that “it's important to keep the context in mind.”
She explains that “private credit is filling a void left by the banks, which have pulled back on lending in light of post-financial crisis regulations.”
And while the asset class is popular among investors because of its potential to deliver high returns and diversification, Rader adds that it's increasingly sought out by borrowers who “see the benefits of this bilateral relationship with a private credit lender — including speed, flexibility, and certainty of execution.”
“We still think there are big opportunities in private credit,” Rader concludes. |
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Can the US rally continue? |
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US equities have staged a remarkable rally through the first half of this year, largely buoyed by investor excitement over the five large-cap tech stocks mostly closely associated with artificial intelligence. While the earnings of these companies — NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta — have supported the higher stock prices, investors are now shifting their focus to when the companies' AI investments will translate into real revenue gains and earnings contributions, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist, says on Goldman Sachs Exchanges. “Portfolio managers had been really embracing the euphoria, the excitement about AI, and what that might mean for corporate profitability, business activity, [and] productivity in the economy,” Kostin tells host Allison Nathan. “More recently, that has shifted, and there's much more questioning of managements — whether or not they can actually deliver better financial results as a consequence of all this investment that's taking place.” For now, Kostin believes that the US equity market is fairly valued, and that the trajectory of the market looks to be in line with the trajectory of earnings.
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The Big Number: The incoming tide of AI spending |
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The estimated capital expenditure by tech giants, other companies, and utilities in coming years on the artificial intelligence revolution. This $1 trillion spend includes significant investments in data centers, chips, other AI infrastructure, and the power grid. Is that too much spending for too little benefit? Read Goldman Sachs Research's Top of Mind report to find out. |
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Jennison's Kathleen McCarragher on finding the largest stocks powering markets today |
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Kathleen McCarragher (L) of Jennison Associates and Betsy Gorton of Goldman Sachs Asset and Wealth Management on Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors |
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Jennison Associates' Kathleen McCarragher and her team have been early investors in many of the largest stocks powering markets higher today. That success — investing in Nvidia in 2016, for example — stems from the depth of research and the long-standing experience of her investors, McCarragher says on Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors. A decades-long large-cap growth investor, McCarragher says she and her team have also prolonged their average investment periods in large-cap growth stocks, as these companies build up the sustainability of their business models, McCarragher says. “Some of these companies have scaled globally, and they have meaningful market opportunities. At some point, maturation or the law of large numbers will set in, and growth will slow. But right now, the competitive barriers and dominant industry positions allow them to continue to grow at really attractive rates.” And while artificial intelligence is clearly benefiting big tech companies, it will also enhance growth rates, productivity, and returns across other large-cap sectors, she says. “When you go beyond technology, we start to talk about productivity gains,” McCarragher says. “The way we believe we will see them first is skill sets that can be enhanced rather than headcount reductions. Over time, what we will find is that as these technologies move into other industries — whether it's healthcare, whether it's education, whether it's oil and gas — we expect to see real foundational capabilities emerge out of utilizing this technology.”
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Black women start businesses faster than any other demographic |
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One Million Black Women: Black in Business Graduation – June 17-18, 2024
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Goldman Sachs' One Million Black Women: Black in Business education program — which recently celebrated the graduation of its fifth cohort — helps sole proprietors scale their businesses, grow revenues, and create jobs.
Black women start businesses faster than any other demographic, but only 3% of these businesses survive beyond five years. New program data shows Black in Business graduates are growing their enterprises:
- 65% of alumni report increases in revenues over the last 12 months (vs. 36% for US-based non-employer firms).
- Nearly 50% report creating new jobs over the last 12 months (vs. 7% of other non-employer firms).
- 62% have innovated a product or service in the past 12 months (vs. 24% of all micro companies).
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Briefings Brainteaser: Hot streak |
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July has historically been a strong month for US stock market returns. The S&P 500 has rallied for nine straight Julys, with an average return of 3.7%. How long is the July winning streak for the Nasdaq 100 index?
A) 9 B) 13 C) 16 D) 21
Check the answer here. |
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Goldman Sachs in the news |
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By clicking on these links, you will be redirected to external websites that Goldman Sachs does not own or operate. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for the products, services, or content provided on those sites. Please refer to each external website's terms, privacy and security policies for details. |
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Plan Sponsor Jun 25 | OpEd: Why PBGC's flat-rate premiums need to drop |
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CNBC Jul 3 | Fed to cut interest rates in September if inflation data is "friendly," economist says (3:18) |
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