Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet are poised to retaliate against Iran, British Foreign Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday, despite U.S. appeals for restraint in an escalating Middle East crisis in which the American military has already been deeply involved. 

“We will make our decisions ourselves,” Netanyahu said after meetings with Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Israel. “The state of Israel will do everything necessary to defend itself.” 

Israel is mulling how and when to respond to Iran’s weekend drone and missile bombardment, which was almost entirely defeated by combined Israeli and allied—including American—defenses. 

U.S. officials have publicly said that Israel will not have American support for a counterstrike against Iran, a message also delivered directly to Netanyahu by President Joe Biden. “Take the win,” the president reportedly told the Israeli leader.  

However, failure to respond may cost Netanyahu politically, especially with Iran touting victory and declaring that the “matter can be deemed concluded.” The divisive prime minister is already polling poorly—and was even before his government’s failure to stop Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel—and is beset by demands for fresh elections. 

“Netanyahu may feel that he has little choice but to escalate with Iran to maintain public support, keep his war coalition together, and, ultimately, ensure his own political survival,” Urban Coningham of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London wrote this week. 

A major Israeli response may deepen fissures in bilateral relations with the U.S. already undermined by the punishing offensive on the Gaza Strip. In the six months since October 7, Netanyahu has repeatedly rebuffed American requests to rein in civilian casualties, facilitate more aid for Palestinians, and curtail Israeli settlements—considered illegal under international law—in the occupied West Bank. 

Despite the Biden administration's criticism of Israel—largely dismissed by Palestinians and their advocates as performative—it will not end vital military support, stressing the “ironclad” nature of continued American backing for its long-time ally. 

“I think that Western countries have shown their support for Israel’s right to defend itself against any attack,” Lior Haiat, Israel’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Newsweek shortly after the Iranian barrage. “The Iranian attack shows the real face of the terror regime of Iran.” 

Israel’s leadership could build on this collaboration or break from it. “Taking another cut at Tehran and risking the region’s dwindled stability in the process could squander that opportunity,” the International Crisis Group think tank wrote this week. 

But any Israeli attack on Iran risks a larger conflagration, or a “new normal” of major tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran with the constant danger of full-scale war. “If Israel does respond by striking Iranian territory, the situation could spiral out of control,” Ali Vaez—the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group—wrote this week. 

Netanyahu may instead look to leverage the standoff to Israel’s benefit in Gaza, where IDF operations continue despite the withdrawal of most units from the Strip and ongoing efforts to reach a new ceasefire deal with Hamas. 

"For Benjamin Netanyahu, this is a net win,” Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, of Israel’s defeat of Iran’s bombardment. “It is possible that Netanyahu will tell Washington: ‘If you don’t let us go after Iran, let us invade Rafah, the southern Gaza city.’”

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