Oil demand is expected to soften next year due a supply surplus driven by non-OPEC countries, according to BMI analysts. Output from non-OPEC countries excluding the U.S. is set to rise at an annual average rate of 858,000 barrels a day this year and 940,000 barrels a day the next, higher than any two-year period of growth seen since 2005, according to the research firm. "Growth is being fuelled by conventional projects with long lead and payback times that are generally insensitive to short-run shifts in the oil price," the analysts say in a note to clients. "As such, absent project delays, these barrels will come online over the next 18 months, regardless of market conditions." BMI forecasts Brent crude to fall to $82 a barrel next year, but said it is considering a downward revision to its estimates. (Giulia Petroni, [email protected])
German economists are divided on planned European Union tariffs on electric vehicles from China, according to one of the country's leading economic-research organizations. One-third of economists polled by the Ifo Institute, which also runs a monthly business-sentiment survey, said the EU's tariffs are justified, while a similar 33% said tariffs were inappropriate. Around 11% wanted lower tariffs, while 6% wanted higher ones, Ifo says. The EU said in June that it plans on imposing duties of up to 38% on Chinese imports of electric cars. "Dealing with China is challenging. Geopolitical risks, responses to China's economic and export strategy and maintaining free trade need to be balanced," said Niklas Potrafke, head of the Ifo's Center for Public Finance. (Edward Frankl, [email protected])
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