Welcome to understanding the American consumer, where everything feels made up and the analysts’ interpretations don’t matter.

A spate of recent disappointing earnings reports from fast-food chains hints that consumers are stretched way too thin. But companies like Shopify and Carnival are touting stellar Q2s and painting a very different picture.

So, what’s the state of everyone’s wallets? Well—and you’re going to hate this—it’s complicated. One thing to keep in mind is that, overall, the US economy grew more than expected last quarter, jumping 2.8% and cementing two years of growth, with strong consumer spending helping it get there.

How people spent their money tells a story

Chicken nuggets don’t feel worth it:

• McDonald’s reported its worst sales since the start of the pandemic, blaming its price increases.
• Yum Brands said KFC and Pizza Hut also saw same-store sales drop last quarter, while sales at Taco Bell (the fast-food chain that pops into your head when you think “value”) increased.
• Chipotle sales grew 18% from April to June, demonstrating that it’s not about the lowest price point, it’s about the most bang for your buck.

People are still shopping. Amazon, Etsy, and Wayfair have all blamed everything from the Olympics to picky customers to explain why shopping on their sites has slowed down. But people are still shopping somewhere because Shopify, which powers much of e-commerce, beat Wall Street expectations last quarter. Execs chalked it up to a more diverse set of businesses on its platform despite “a mixed consumer spend environment.”

Big picture: Despite a flop of a July jobs report last week and a scary reaction from the stock market, most economists agree that we aren’t on the verge of a recession and signs are more than likely pointing to normalization after a tumultuous pandemic recovery.—MM

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Taylor Swift concerts canceled over terror threat. Organizers called off three Eras Tour concerts scheduled to take place in Vienna this week, saying the Austrian government had confirmed a planned terrorist attack on the stadium. Authorities said they had arrested two extremists, including a 19-year-old Islamic State sympathizer believed to be planning a potential attack on the concerts. The concerts were sold out and 170,000 fans were expected to attend. All tickets will be automatically refunded, the organizer said.

Disney finally makes money from streaming. The company’s streaming business, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, turned a profit for the first time—a quarter sooner than it planned, Disney said yesterday while reporting its quarterly earnings. “We were losing $1 billion a quarter not that long ago,” Disney’s CFO reminded analysts. Movies were also a bright spot, largely thanks to the success of Inside Out 2. But all was not entirely well within Disney’s kingdom as revenues from theme parks—an area the company had been relying on to pick up the slack from others and pouring resources into—came in weaker than expected as demand decreased.

Mortgage rates are coming down. In a sign that people may be able to start buying houses even if they eat avocado toast, the rate on the 30-year-fixed mortgage fell to 6.55% last week, new Mortgage Bankers Association data shows. That marked the biggest weekly decline in two years and put the rate at its lowest since May 2023. In response, refinancing applications jumped 16%, and mortgage applications ticked up by 0.8%. Mortgage rates are likely to fall even further since everyone expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. But the housing market might stay tight because many people who own homes are sitting on much lower rates and might not want to sell.

Elon Musk is dealing with controversies on many fronts after a busy week in which he has traded barbs with newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer amidst violent protests across the UK, brought a lawsuit against advertisers, and revived a case against OpenAI. And it’s not even Friday.

In the UK…Musk has drawn condemnation from British politicians after boosting incendiary comments on his platform, X, following a stabbing attack that killed three girls in England last week.

• Misinformation spread across X, including claims that the perpetrator was both Muslim and an asylum-seeker. In response to a post that blamed immigration for the violence—something the PM’s office has refuted—Musk posted, “Civil war is inevitable.” In another post, Musk directly called out Starmer.
• Some British politicians have indicated they want Musk to answer questions about X’s role in the violence (which seemed to be abating yesterday). The UK’s tech minister said Musk is “the one person who is accountable to no one.”

Meanwhile…X sued a major advertiser group on Tuesday (Musk declared it “war”), alleging an illegal advertiser boycott that deprived the company of billions of dollars in revenue. And Musk personally sued OpenAI and Sam Altman, claiming that they abandoned the company’s pledge to prioritize public interest over profit.

Next week…Musk is set to interview Donald Trump on Monday night.—CC

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Amid disagreements between NASA and Boeing, two astronauts who have missed brat summer thanks to spacecraft troubles could end up staying at the International Space Station until next year, NASA officials said at a press conference yesterday.

It was supposed to be an eight-day mission. But NASA veterans Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams have been at the International Space Station (ISS) since June 6, when they arrived via Boeing’s Starliner on its first crewed voyage. They docked at the ISS successfully but noticed several thruster glitches and helium leaks, which Boeing and NASA officials have been working to resolve.

But the two organizations are not on the same page about Starliner’s flight-readiness, the Wall Street Journal reported:

• Boeing says recent test data shows that the problems are under control and its craft is ready to complete the return mission.
• NASA noted some promising tests but has concerns about other results. The space agency is internally divided over whether Starliner is safe enough to carry Wilmore and Williams home.

SpaceX may swoop in. NASA has an upcoming ISS-bound mission carried by SpaceX’s Crew Dragon that it could likely send with just two astronauts in the four-seater so that Wilmore and Williams can hop in for the return flight…in February. Starliner would fly home empty in that situation, possibly jeopardizing its certification for routine journeys. NASA apparently hasn’t decided yet, and bought some time this week by delaying the SpaceX launch from mid-August to the end of September.—ML

Tim Walz’s selection as Kamala Harris’s running mate may have been a victory for Nancy Pelosi, but there’s one key area where the Minnesota governor and the former House speaker differ wildly—their portfolios. Financial disclosures show Walz doesn’t own any stock (and neither does his wife), according to Axios. He’s also got no other securities, mutual funds, bonds, private equities, or crypto holdings. The couple seems to be invested only in state pensions, including teacher pensions.

It’s a surprisingly relatable move for a politician: 49% of American households don’t hold any stock, according to a 2023 Gallup poll. And though participation in the stock market has been on the rise recently, it’s still mostly people who don’t care that guac costs extra buying in. Federal Reserve data shows that the richest 10% of Americans held 93% of stocks last year.