As if the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and the surrounding unrest were not enough to test the volatile fault lines of the Middle East, the sudden death of the Iranian president, the decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to seek warrants for the arrest of Israel’s prime minister and top Hamas leaders and renewed concerns about the health of Saudi Arabia’s aging king raise new questions about the fate of the region. 

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was confirmed dead Monday alongside his entourage, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other senior officials, when their helicopter crashed a day earlier upon a return trip from a visit to the border with neighboring Azerbaijan. The aircraft, a decades-old U.S.-made Bell 212 helicopter, took off amid heavy fog conditions in Iran’s northwest East Azerbaijan province, and the ensuing search effort, bolstered by foreign aid, took some 15 hours before the wreck was located. 

The investigation into the circumstances surrounding the incident remains ongoing. No official accusations or indications of foul play have emerged, but suspicions remain rife, particularly given the heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, which has fostered close ties with neighboring Azerbaijan. 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has approved First Vice President Mohammed Mokhber to temporarily assume the duties of acting president, as per Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, with chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri serving as top diplomat. New elections have been scheduled for June 28. 

Though Khamenei ultimately has the final say on Iran’s foreign and domestic affairs, particularly as conservatives have consolidated power in recent years, Iranian presidents have played an influential role in terms of leadership priorities and style, so all eyes will be on the potential candidates. Also particularly consequential is the notion that Raisi was deemed by many observers to be a potential successor to Khamenei, who is 85, throwing the future of Iran’s most powerful position into uncertainty as well. 

Just hours after news of Raisi’s death was announced, ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan made international headlines when he confirmed his highly anticipated decision to seek an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, alongside Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas’ two top leaders, Political Bureau Chair Ismail Haniyeh and Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar. 

The move was quickly denounced by both Israel and Hamas, who argued that only the other side should be subject to international scrutiny over alleged war crimes committed throughout the conflict in Gaza that began on October 7 last year. While U.S. officials have also called on Netanyahu to do more to avoid civilian casualties throughout the war, President Joe Biden and his administration condemned the move, arguing that the ICC does not have jurisdiction over the matter. 

This argument stems from the fact that Palestinian statehood remains a subject of international debate and is not recognized by the U.S. or Israel, both of which are also not parties to the ICC’s founding Rome Statute. The United Nations does, however, recognize the State of Palestine, led by Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as a non-member observer state that accepted ICC jurisdiction, including Gaza, in 2015. 

In the leadup to Khan’s announcement, Newsweek spoke with Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the former ICC president and the first chief prosecutor, who outlined how the case may proceed. A representative of Netanyahu’s office called for all measures within the scope of the law to be taken to prevent the move, while a senior Biden administration official said that the White House had no plans to follow in the steps of former President Donald Trump’s administration, which threatened sanctions against ICC personnel in response to investigations into alleged U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan. 

Biden’s position is further complicated by the fact that he welcomed the ICC’s decision just last year to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over alleged abuses committed throughout the ongoing war in Ukraine. Like Israel, Ukraine has received extensive U.S. military assistance. 

Putin has also rejected the ICC ruling and remains firmly in power in Russia, having made a headlines-grabbing trip to China, also not party to the ICC, last week. The situation may be more impactful for Netanyahu, who has traveled with greater frequency to Rome Statute signatories, which include most of Europe and South America, many African nations, as well as Australia, Canada and Japan among other countries that would be compelled by treaty to detain him. 

Another Middle Eastern leader canceled travel to Japan on Monday in a separate development that garnered far less attention. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was due to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Emperor Naruhito and other officials and industry leaders but postponed the visit due to concerns over the health of his father, King Salman. 

The official Saudi Press Agency reported Sunday that the monarch, who is 88, was suffering from a lung infection and would be taking antibiotics to address the issue. It is the second time that King Salman, who assumed the throne after the death of his father, King Abdullah, in 2015 and appointed his son as heir two years later, made news for his health this year after the Royal Court announced that he had been hospitalized last month for what was said to be “routine examinations.” 

State-run Saudi media reported on Tuesday that Crown Prince Mohammed reassured the Cabinet on the state of his father’s health and no further developments have been made public. The 38-year-old Saudi royal has for years, however, assumed the position of de facto ruler of the Kingdom and has pressed on with an ambitious set of reforms in line with his “Vision 2030” project that includes an easing of social restrictions, a campaign to attract foreign talent in business, sports and entertainment, sprawling megaprojects and a transition away from an oil-dependent economy. 

With Crown Prince Mohammed largely at the helm, Saudi Arabia has also capitalized on its fast-growing economy and burgeoning geopolitical status to re-balance its international ties, boosting relations with China, Russia and even Iran, sometimes amid public spats with the Biden administration. Now, as Saudi Arabia pursues negotiations for greater U.S. cooperation in the spheres of defense, nuclear energy and technology-sharing, the White House’s hopes for a deal to establish ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia appear to be falling by the wayside, with Riyadh holding more cards than ever before. 

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