Unemployment is rising, stocks are falling and bond yields are well below short-term interest rates. These are all telltale signs of recession.

But a closer look suggests that while recession risk has risen, the U.S. isn’t in one now. The distinction is crucial because it means it isn’t too late to head off a downturn. It all depends on the Fed, and on the unpredictable moods of investors, consumers and employers.

Below, some of the best analysis and insight from WSJ writers and columnists, the Dow Jones Newswires team and occasionally beyond, on investing, the wealth-management business and more.

This week’s stock-market roller coaster appears to be driven by a reversal in speculative trades, rather than the popping of a bubble or an omen of economic disaster. But that doesn’t mean we are in the clear.

From Dow Jones Newswires

European companies are flagging signs of consumer weakness in a second-quarter earnings season that is showing decent sets of numbers generally speaking, Bank of America investment strategists Andreas Bruckner and Sebastian Raedler say in a research note. Companies across the consumer-facing space sounding the alarm about lackluster consumer demand in China and surprising weakness in the U.S. spoil an earnings season that should see a return to earnings growth for the Stoxx Europe 600, BofA says. With around 70% of European companies having reported to date, earnings per share growth is running at 3.6%, in line with expectations, and mainly due to continued strength in the financial sector, BofA says. ([email protected])

The relief for German industry from the 3.9% upturn in factory orders in June will likely be short-lived, Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says in a note. "This is a solid headline overall, but we doubt it marks the beginning of a sustained upturn into the third quarter, unfortunately," he says. Factory orders fell by 1.3% on quarter in 2Q, much better than the 4.4% slide in 1Q, but still poor overall, he says. Looking ahead, the 9.2% surge in capital-goods orders in June will mean-revert in July, driving down new orders in next month's report, Vistesen says. Furthermore, and consistent with the signal from the surveys, sluggish momentum will continue to weigh on production over the coming months, he adds. ([email protected])

As consumer interest in different fee options grows, more advisers are introducing alternatives to the traditional AUM-based model.

Amazon, Google and Microsoft are using a new type of deal to get employees and technology from artificial-intelligence firms.

European energy giants Shell and BP are sticking to their core business as clean-energy investments make slow progress.

The standard advice is to do nothing, but there are some exceptions.

The 52-year-old hip-hop maestro is a sports television natural and viral sensation, stirring the network’s coverage with a mix of sui generis analysis, cheerleading and Snoop-out-of-water segments.

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